China’s gross domestic product grew 4.5% from a year earlier in the third quarter. That beat economists’ median forecast of 4.4% and marked an acceleration from 4.3% in the second quarter.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Oct. 19 showed the pickup. It took expansion in the first nine months of the year to 4.6%. The figures put the economy on track to meet Beijing’s full-year target of 4.5%-5%.
The rebound comes after leaders rolled out measures to support home buyers and direct cheaper credit to infrastructure and technology sectors. Yet they have held back from large-scale stimulus. Exports of technology goods helped offset weak domestic demand and a prolonged property slump.
On a quarterly basis GDP rose 1.2%. That exceeded the 1.1% expected and compared with 0.9% growth in the prior period. The National Bureau of Statistics provided the sequential figure alongside the year-on-year data.
Analysts had pointed to solid export performance as a key driver heading into the release. Bloomberg reported the 4.5% pace dimmed prospects for additional easing measures in coming months. The first-nine-months 4.6% reading sits comfortably inside the government’s annual goal range.
But challenges remain. A property downturn now in its fifth year continues to weigh on investment and household wealth. Consumption has stayed muted even as some September activity indicators showed improvement.
The latest data eases immediate pressure on policymakers. They had vowed effective new policies earlier this year to counter soft domestic demand. Recent steps included mortgage subsidies for first-time buyers and targeted rate cuts.
Still, growth stayed below the 5% midpoint of the target band. The International Monetary Fund recently cut its forecast for China’s 2027 expansion to 4%, citing persistent headwinds in consumption and investment. No further details on additional stimulus emerged with the GDP release.
September industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment figures came out alongside the GDP data. Those monthly indicators generally beat expectations and showed faster momentum than in August. The National Bureau of Statistics has not yet issued a full breakdown of third-quarter drivers beyond the headline growth.
Full-year growth is now projected near the lower end of the target. The Oct. 19 release marks the last major data point before authorities assess progress toward the 2026 goal in coming weeks.
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