
PayPal shares jumped 17% after reports surfaced that Stripe and Advent International offered $60.50 a share to buy the payments giant. The deal would value the company at more than $53 billion. Yet one prominent investor wasted little time pushing back.
Michael Burry called the bid “simply too low.” He owns PayPal stock. And he has no plans to sell at that price. His analysis, laid out in a Substack post, points to deeper value that the offer fails to capture. The Motley Fool first highlighted his remarks. Burry’s view carries weight. He gained fame predicting the housing crisis in “The Big Short.” Now he sees the same pattern here. An opening bid that undervalues a business with strong cash flows and strategic assets.
The offer from Stripe, a privately held payments leader, and Advent, a private equity firm, arrived this month. It represents a 28% premium to PayPal’s closing price the day before the news broke. Shares closed at $47.37 then. They soared to $55.52 on the announcement. But that still left them trading below the proposed buyout level. Investors appeared skeptical the deal would close at the stated terms. Or at all.
Burry disagreed with the market’s muted reaction. In his post on Cassandra Unchained, he broke down the numbers using his intrinsic value framework. The bid equals just 1.21 times his IV15 estimate. That metric reflects what a minority investor might pay. A full buyout demands more. Much more.
“The bid is at 1.21x IV15 and simply too low,” Burry wrote. “This validates the value in PayPal, and I believe the bid will have to rise. The company is well below intrinsic value, and any successful bid should be well above intrinsic value to account for the control premium.”
He continued. “PayPal is one of the cheapest quality businesses in the portfolio. IV15 is what a minority investor would pay. There is no control premium in my IV15 calculation. A control premium should take any buyout well above IV15, and 21% more is not nearly enough.”
Burry’s math gets specific. True intrinsic value sits around his IV8 to IV10 levels. IV10 points to $75 to $80 a share. IV8 pushes that to $110 to $115. Add a control premium to the lower figure. A realistic winning bid lands near $100 a share. That remains below his IV8 estimate. “With control over the cash flows, those businesses and the personnel, the new owner will have many levers to increase value and make for a better overall business,” he added.
“$60.50 is just too low. I am not selling, and I believe it is only an opening bid.”
Burry’s Valuation Framework Challenges the Bid
Those figures stand in sharp contrast to the offer price. PayPal generated $1.7 billion in adjusted free cash flow during the first quarter. That marked a 25% increase from a year earlier. At the current pace, the $53 billion valuation implies less than eight times annual free cash flow. The deal also values the company at roughly 11 times earnings. Those multiples appear attractive for a business with 439 million active accounts. Yet growth has slowed. Revenue rose 7% in the first quarter. Transaction margin dollars, a key profitability gauge, increased just 3%. Active accounts grew 1% year over year but dipped slightly from the previous quarter.
Management offered cautious guidance. Adjusted earnings per share could decline in the low single digits or turn slightly positive for the full year. The stock had already fallen from a 52-week high of $79.50. The bid sits 24% below that peak. So the 28% premium to the recent low feels less impressive in context.
Burry’s stance aligns with some recent coverage. Yahoo Finance reported his comments and noted that he expects a higher bid. TipRanks echoed the point. Some Wall Street analysts also anticipate an improved offer if negotiations advance. The board planned to meet as soon as July 20 to review the proposal. PayPal has not commented publicly.
The financing behind the bid looks solid. Reports indicate $50 billion in committed bank loans. Stripe and Advent would each own 50% of PayPal if the deal closes. No breakup of the business is planned. The combination pairs Stripe’s merchant-focused infrastructure with PayPal’s vast consumer network and Venmo platform. Stablecoin initiatives at both companies could gain from integration too.
But competition has intensified. Apple Pay, Block, Affirm and Klarna challenge PayPal on multiple fronts. Shares had dropped about 35% over the past year before the bid news. That decline reflected stalled user growth and pressure on margins. Burry bought in anyway. He accumulated shares around $49 earlier this year after previously calling the stock a value trap. The market, he suggested, had “attended PayPal’s wake for years” while the company repurchased shares aggressively.
Now the vultures circle. A $53 billion deal would rank among the largest in fintech history. Yet Burry sees it as insufficient. His IV estimates rest on a methodology that discounts future cash flows under varying assumptions. IV15 uses more conservative inputs suited to passive ownership. IV8 and IV10 assume different growth and margin scenarios. The gap between them highlights uncertainty. But the control premium argument holds regardless. Buyers who gain full decision-making power can cut costs, accelerate buybacks, expand partnerships or invest in new products. Those levers justify paying extra.
Recent market reaction supports some doubt. Shares traded around $56 after the initial surge. That left an 8% discount to the offer price. Traders appeared to price in the chance that PayPal’s board rejects the bid or that the parties fail to agree on terms. If talks collapse, the stock could retreat sharply. But Burry’s refusal to sell signals confidence that better offers may emerge. He is not alone in that view. Discussions on X, formerly Twitter, show investors debating a potential bidding war. Some speculate the price could reach $70 to $80. Others reference Burry’s $100 target.
The original report on the offer came from Reuters. It cited people familiar with the matter. The Wall Street Journal and CNBC soon confirmed details. PayPal’s turnaround effort under new leadership adds another layer. The company has worked to simplify its product lineup and improve efficiency. Those steps could bear fruit under new owners with fresh capital and strategic focus.
Free cash flow remains the story’s core. PayPal returned $6 billion to shareholders through repurchases over the trailing 12 months. That discipline supports Burry’s case for higher worth. A buyer controlling those flows could amplify returns. And PayPal’s brand, data assets and global reach retain significant appeal despite slower growth.
So the board faces a choice. Accept $60.50 and hand the company to Stripe and Advent. Or push for more. Burry has made his position clear. He sees the current offer as the start of a conversation. Not the end. Markets will watch closely as July unfolds. Any revised bid, competing interest or outright rejection could send shares moving again. For now, one of the most vocal value investors in the market has drawn a line. At $60.50, he isn’t budging.
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