The narrative around autonomous vehicles and the robotaxi market is poised to take a dramatic turn, and it’s a familiar face who might kick-start that change: Toyota. Tech visionary Robert Scoble recently voiced insights on X that have rippled across the automotive and AI sectors, offering a fresh perspective on how competition might not spell trouble for Tesla—it could be the very thing that supercharges its growth.
Scoble, a long-time advocate for both Tesla and the future of artificial intelligence, dropped the bombshell. “Toyota is working on an electric vehicle without a steering wheel,” he shared, hinting at a robotaxi contender that could directly challenge Tesla’s growing presence in the self-driving space. And yet, Scoble’s take on this competitive pressure isn’t all negative. In fact, his analysis suggests that Toyota’s entry into the autonomous driving market could ultimately benefit Tesla.
Listen to our chat on how robotaxi competition could accelerate Tesla’s growth!
Toyota Enters the Scene: A Game-Changer for Tesla?
Toyota’s move into the robotaxi market—a vehicle with no steering wheel—could reshape global competition. Scoble explained, “Toyota has some things that Tesla doesn’t.” He highlighted the automaker’s strong brand loyalty worldwide, established dealer networks, and well-equipped factories. With those advantages, Toyota could rapidly scale production of autonomous vehicles, particularly in non-American markets where Tesla has less dominance.
This is not to say Tesla is devoid of its advantages. Tesla’s AI-driven vehicles are currently setting benchmarks for autonomous technology—a fact underscored by the growing popularity of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software in cities like San Francisco and Phoenix. However, Scoble was clear that legacy automakers like Toyota have woken up to the AI-driven threat and are ready to respond. “They missed the boat like everyone other than Tesla, but they know it now. They are waking up to the threat of AI-driven electric vehicles,” Scoble noted.
The result? A scenario where Toyota, with its trusted global brand and network, could offer a credible challenge to Tesla’s position. This competition, rather than detracting from Tesla’s market share, could actually add to its legitimacy. “Every great company has a great competitor,” Scoble argued, comparing the potential dynamic to that of Coke and Pepsi, or Hertz and Avis. “Competition drives human interest and trust.”
The AI Factor and the NVIDIA Link
The robotaxi market is not just about autonomous driving; it’s deeply intertwined with the latest in AI technology. Scoble’s analysis brought another significant player into the mix—NVIDIA. The GPU giant has been a key enabler of AI development, particularly for autonomous vehicles. Interestingly, Scoble pointed out how new advances in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could eventually require far fewer NVIDIA GPUs than today’s large language models. This, he believes, could alter NVIDIA’s growth trajectory in ways most people aren’t considering.
“NVIDIA would be dramatically helped by a new AI technology that could be trained with far fewer NVIDIA cards,” Scoble asserted. The company’s Omniverse platform, which is meant to serve as a foundation for digital twins and simulated environments, could become a significant beneficiary of advances in AI. The implications here extend beyond just training AI models. With fewer hardware requirements, the cost of developing autonomous systems could drop—a potential boon for companies like Toyota that are planning to enter the robotaxi market.
Consumer Resistance: Will They or Won’t They?
One of the biggest hurdles for autonomous vehicles has been consumer acceptance, a challenge Scoble has studied extensively. His travels have taken him to almost every state in the U.S., where he’s interviewed consumers to understand their attitudes toward self-driving cars. “Americans are resistant to autonomous vehicles, but they will change, and they will change quickly,” he emphasized. He cites examples from around the world, including South Africa, where Uber transformed the lives of women in underserved areas by providing safer, more reliable rides.
“If Toyota brought a credible robotaxi to market, it would be used by many, and not just in America,” he observed. He believes that autonomous networks could bring about a shift similar to what ride-hailing apps did a decade ago. Once people experience the convenience and affordability of driverless services, they may never go back to human-driven cars. “Google’s head of R&D told me that it only takes one to three rides before you become a huge fan of autonomous cars,” Scoble recalled.
Tesla’s Response: The Upside of Competition
Despite predicting a short-term dip in Tesla’s stock if Toyota announces a robotaxi, Scoble remains optimistic about Tesla’s long-term prospects. “A new competitor actually helps Tesla,” he argued, likening the scenario to the Apple-Google rivalry that has spurred innovation across both companies. “If Toyota enters the market, it could bring a 20 to 40% drop in Tesla’s stock price initially, but that would just be the mother of all buying opportunities,” he said.
Scoble’s view is rooted in his belief that great companies thrive on great competition. A credible Toyota robotaxi would validate the autonomous vehicle market in a way that could even accelerate consumer adoption. And if Toyota’s move keeps out weaker competitors, such as fledgling Chinese manufacturers, it could mean a more focused race between two well-resourced giants—a positive outcome for Tesla.
The Tariff Question
The geopolitical landscape also factors into Scoble’s analysis. He believes that current tariffs could influence Toyota’s entry into the American market, especially given Elon Musk’s recent alignment with political figures like Donald Trump. “I expect Trump to put deep tariffs on such a product, keeping it out of America to protect American autoworkers,” Scoble speculated. While this might initially shield Tesla from direct competition in its home market, it could also motivate legacy American automakers like GM and Ford to innovate faster and enter the robotaxi game.
In the end, Scoble believes the rise of competitors like Toyota isn’t just inevitable—it’s desirable. Whether it’s Tesla, NVIDIA, or even Uber, each player stands to benefit from a vibrant, competitive ecosystem. “Tesla needs a great competitor, and Toyota has what it takes: a trusted brand and distribution around the world,” Scoble concluded.
A Front-Row Seat
Robert Scoble has had a front-row seat to some of the most pivotal moments in the evolution of tech—from the first ride in a Tesla to the early launch of AI-driven systems like Siri. His insights into the autonomous vehicle industry carry the weight of both experience and a deep understanding of technological trends. As Toyota gears up to challenge Tesla in the robotaxi market, Scoble’s analysis provides a compelling argument: competition, even from giants like Toyota, could be just the push Tesla needs to elevate its game, transform public opinion, and ultimately accelerate the adoption of autonomous vehicles worldwide.
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